Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 2.339191 2.728683 3.160535 3.674540 4.269384 4.935880 5.739116
2026-01-04 1.735498 2.256803 2.897229 3.740439 4.820140 6.155074 7.929953
2026-01-11 1.360217 1.934292 2.701441 3.798283 5.322974 7.364048 10.300794
2026-01-18 1.096228 1.681842 2.522138 3.810022 5.727986 8.471737 12.687690
2026-01-25 0.899725 1.475304 2.354189 3.785261 6.047737 9.475373 15.048962
2026-02-01 0.711940 1.240298 2.093969 3.562337 6.012476 9.920936 16.607593
2026-02-08 0.587118 1.080914 1.920801 3.439136 6.099310 10.544777 18.505637
2026-02-15 0.504159 0.976592 1.818969 3.412834 6.332641 11.423128 20.925694
2026-02-22 0.458687 0.931014 1.810457 3.545361 6.855531 12.853534 24.480895
2026-03-01 0.400216 0.849772 1.722424 3.514330 7.069181 13.752424 27.183204
2026-03-08 0.347939 0.771341 1.626604 3.451241 7.207826 14.521857 29.730576
2026-03-15 0.309834 0.715543 1.566526 3.448797 7.461915 15.536817 32.874435
2026-03-22 0.298689 0.718192 1.631350 3.724101 8.341561 17.936481 39.192796
2026-03-29 0.271023 0.679109 1.601688 3.793890 8.802342 19.555363 44.144956
2026-04-05 0.246003 0.641672 1.569700 3.853591 9.250582 21.209322 49.405659
2026-04-12 0.221131 0.599898 1.520764 3.865859 9.592321 22.675787 54.452282
2026-04-19 0.197384 0.556437 1.460517 3.840869 9.841883 23.966363 59.271284
2026-04-26 0.166595 0.488380 1.328024 3.614801 9.569354 24.012276 61.176209
2026-05-03 0.144956 0.441142 1.240749 3.489850 9.529211 24.602009 64.468686
2026-05-10 0.130317 0.410972 1.193555 3.463176 9.737774 25.826047 69.498604
2026-05-17 0.123512 0.402630 1.204656 3.597602 10.393911 28.259850 77.934776
2026-05-24 0.111454 0.375882 1.159438 3.566127 10.592268 29.537980 83.517140
2026-05-31 0.099743 0.347905 1.105983 3.502136 10.690003 30.562971 88.559715